Lücking, R. 2014: [Abstract:] A new approach to predict global species richness in lichenized fungi. - In: : Livro de Resumos do Sétimo Encontro do Grupo Brasileiro de Liquenólogos. 1. Grupo Brasileiro de Liquenólogos pp. 23. [RLL List # 248 / Rec.# 39004] Abstract: The number of fungal species is estimated at between 1.5 and 3 million. Compared to about 100,000 currently accepted species, this means that over 90% of Fungi are still to be discovered. Lichenized fungi are believed to take a minor share of this number, but recent estimates suggest that compared to about 18,000 species currently accepted, at least another 10,000 species await discovery. Several strategies have been implemented to predict unknown species richness in different groups of organisms, ranging from publication trends, to species area curves, to estimators based on the relative proportion of rare taxa, to methods using phenotypic traits of the taxa in question. This contribution discusses a method based on a grid map that uses regression between observed species richness, sampling effort, and a score based on predictor variables, such as vegetation diversity, per grid, to establish a model of individual grid species richness. This model can then be used to predict individual grid species richness assuming maximum sampling effort. The method also requires an estimate of average grid range per species, which is done by analysing the distribution of observed grid frequencies and extrapolating towards the total grid number. By summarizing predicted grid species richness and dividing by estimated average grid range per species, total predicted species richness can be calculated. Examples are given in various groups of lichenized fungi at a global level and for specific geographic regions.
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